Bitcoin registered an intraday low of $83,500 on September 23, breaking below the $84,000 threshold as a surge in US real yields pressured the broader risk-asset complex. The drop coincided with a sharp rise in bond markets, where the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.11%, up 15 basis points in a single session.
Stronger-Than-Expected PMI Drives Yield Spike
The immediate trigger for the price action was a hotter-than-expected business activity survey. S&P Global’s September composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) jumped to 58.4 from 56.0 on September 22. This marked the strongest expansion in the survey since July 2021. The services component recorded 58.7, while the manufacturing component stood at 57.0.
Intraday reports indicated that the 10-year yield traded near 5.058% within minutes of the PMI release. The strength in economic data pushed real yields higher, with the 10-year real yield climbing from 2.63% on September 22 to 2.76% on September 23. This 13-basis-point increase in real yields accounted for the majority of the 15-basis-point rise in the nominal yield. Implied 10-year inflation compensation edged up slightly from 2.33% to 2.35% over the same period.
The Federal Reserve had previously hiked rates to a target range of 3.75% to 4.00% on September 16. The recent yield movement suggests that market participants are pricing in sustained economic strength, which has historically correlated with downward pressure on non-yielding assets like Bitcoin.
On-Chain Data and Liquidations
As Bitcoin breached the $84,000 level, approximately $280 million in long positions were liquidated. According to on-chain data from Glassnode, the $84,000 to $85,000 zone represents the nearest support, identified as the largest cluster of long-term holder supply. Bitcoin currently trades above the True Market Mean (TMM), which Glassnode identifies at $77,000, as well as the short-term holder cost basis.
From a valuation perspective, the current quote of approximately $84,282 sits 8.6% above the TMM. The next major resistance level is identified at $96,700, based on the mean MVRV price, which is 14.7% higher than the current market price.
ETF Inflows and Upcoming Expirations
Despite the price decline, institutional demand via spot Bitcoin ETFs has remained robust, though the pace has slowed. Farside Investors reported that spot Bitcoin ETFs took in approximately $1.3 billion over the five days following a recent market squeeze. This inflow streak ended two consecutive weeks of outflows.
Daily inflows decreased in the days leading up to the yield spike: $999 million on September 21, $714.7 million on September 22, and $346.9 million on September 23. On September 22, BlackRock’s IBIT led inflows with $350.3 million, followed by Fidelity’s FBTC with $257.4 million and Morgan Stanley’s MSBT with $99 million. Meanwhile, 24-hour spot volume across exchanges climbed 121% from its August trough, indicating increased activity despite the price correction.
Market structure events are scheduled for Friday. Roughly $16 billion in Bitcoin options are set to expire on Deribit, and CME’s September Bitcoin futures settlement is scheduled for Friday afternoon. These expirations may introduce further volatility as traders adjust positions ahead of the new month.
Why It Matters
The correlation between rising US real yields and Bitcoin price action remains a critical factor for digital asset investors. With real yields climbing to 2.76%, the opportunity cost for holding non-yielding assets increases, potentially altering risk appetite. Investors must monitor whether on-chain support at $84,000 holds against further yield spikes, as upcoming options expirations could amplify short-term volatility.
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