JPMorgan projects 10% annualized Bitcoin returns over next decade

First inclusion in long-term outlook

JPMorgan has published its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report, marking the first time the bank has included Bitcoin in its long-term capital market outlook. The annual report, which covers more than 200 assets, projects that Bitcoin will outperform both large-cap US stocks and gold over the next decade.

The bank forecasts a 10% annualized return for Bitcoin over the coming ten years. This projection exceeds the 7.5% annualized return expected for large-cap US stocks and the 5.5% annualized return projected for gold. While the bank’s base case suggests Bitcoin will be the best-performing asset in its portfolio of tracked assets, it explicitly warns that the digital currency’s characteristics limit its utility for traditional portfolio management.

Volatility limits diversification role

In the report, JPMorgan stated that it does not currently make a case for Bitcoin as a diversifier in portfolios due to its unstable market correlations. The bank characterized Bitcoin as a speculative asset and a hedge against monetary easing, rather than a stable cornerstone for risk reduction.

The calculations underlying these projections considered Bitcoin’s supply growth relative to the money supply, its potential role alongside gold, and the trajectory of network adoption. The report outlines a range of scenarios for the asset’s performance. In a bull case, JPMorgan projects an annualized return of 16.6%. Conversely, in a bear case, the bank anticipates an annualized loss of 11.2%.

Industry reaction and competing forecasts

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, responded to the publication of the report on X, welcoming the inclusion of the digital asset in a major institutional framework. Hougan referenced a popular adage about how markets treat new innovations, writing: “First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight at you, then they add you to their Long-Term Capital Markets Assumptions paper and predict you’ll be the best-performing asset of the next decade.”

Bitwise itself maintains a significantly more bullish outlook than JPMorgan’s projections. In August 2025, the asset manager projected that Bitcoin could reach a price of $1.3 million by 2035. This target implies a base-case annualized return of 28.3%, which is nearly three times higher than the 10% figure cited by JPMorgan.

The divergence between the two forecasts highlights the varying methodologies and risk appetites among major financial institutions and specialized crypto asset managers. While JPMorgan focuses on long-term capital market assumptions and correlation risks, firms like Bitwise often model based on supply constraints and adoption curves that lead to higher price targets.

For institutional investors, the inclusion of Bitcoin in JPMorgan’s annual outlook represents a significant shift in how traditional finance views the asset class. The bank’s decision to assign a specific long-term return projection, even while cautioning against diversification benefits, signals that Bitcoin is being integrated into standard macroeconomic modeling frameworks alongside traditional asset classes like equities and commodities.